Conclave live: black smoke emerges from chimney as cardinals fail to agree on new pope
We’re back for afternoon votes
Jakub Krupa
The cardinals were expected to be back in the Sistine Chapel at 4.30pm local time, and we understand that they have just gone in.
So the fourth vote should be now getting under way any moment now.
The next possible smoke would be probably around 5.30pm local time, but we only if they elected a pope.
That’s the round in which Benedict XVI was elected in 2005.
Otherwise, we will have to wait until the fifth round is done, around 7pm, when we will get a smoke signal, whatever the result.
But keep in mind that all these timings are purely for guidance: it may be earlier, may be later, and it’s only up to the 133 cardinals to decide the timings.
I know, not very helpful. But I don’t make the rules!
Key events
The factions lobbying to shape the conclave
Harriet Sherwood
There are thought to be a number of different factions seeking to shape the outcome of the conclave. Broadly speaking, they can be characterised as progressives, conservatives, unifiers and the Italian contingent.
Those involved in lobbying – including cardinal electors and cardinals ineligible to take part in the conclave as they are 80 or older – are hoping to sway newer, less experienced cardinals. About 80% of the 133 cardinal electors have not taken part in a conclave before; 21 were appointed just four months before Francis’s death. Some believe this means there is everything to play for.
The progressives include those who want to preserve Francis’s legacy and push forward on his priorities. Issues such as inequality, marginalisation, the climate crisis and migration are important. They also want more lay people, including women, appointed to important Vatican positions; an orientation on the global south, where the Roman Catholic church is seeing its greatest growth; and an emphasis on a “poor church for the poor” rather than the pomp and rituals beloved of the traditionalists.
You can read the full piece here:
Angela Giuffrida
Activists belonging to a group who held a peaceful protest aimed at calling out the “injustice” against women in the Catholic church were detained by Vatican police, allegedly because they were deemed a “threat to security”.
On Wednesday afternoon, as the cardinals began voting for the next pope, women from the UK-based Catholic Women’s Ordination (CWO) emitted pink smoke into the air on Rome’s Gianicolo hill, which overlooks St Peter’s Basilica.
Later, as they gathered in St Peter’s square to wait for the outcome of the first conclave vote, they were surrounded by a group of police in plain clothes.
“They swooped in and said, ‘Okay, ladies, documents, please,” said Miriam Duignan, who was dressed in pink. “I protested furiously.”
The women, along with three nuns who just so happened to be talking to them, were taken to the Vatican’s police station.
Duignan claimed that a police officer questioned her over the peaceful protest, for which the group had a permit. “But he said ‘you are still perceived as a security threat by the Vatican’.”
The activists, who for years have been battling for women to become priests, were let go but banned from entering Vatican city for the remainder of the conclave.
It is believed they were being watched after being arrested during a protest close to the Vatican in 2022.
Lunchbreak continues
As the lunchbreak continues, thousands of pilgrims in the Vatican are trying to kill some time with all sorts of games and activities …
The cardinals are expected to be back in the Sistine Chapel around 4.30pm local time (3.30 BST).
Global media interest in conclave
Harriet Sherwood
Vatican official has just told me there are 6,000 media representatives from 90 countries here to cover the conclave.
No pope after three votes – lunchtime summary
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Black smoke billowed out of the Sistine Chapel chimney before lunch, indicating no decision on who should be the next pope after three rounds of votes.
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133 cardinal elects are now taking a lunch break after the two morning votes.
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Two more rounds are scheduled for this afternoon/evening, starting from 4.30pm local time (3.30pm BST).
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Three out of last five popes were elected on the second day of conclave, but this year’s vote has a record-high number of electors, making the process more complex than usual.
Wait continues in Vatican – in pictures
How many votes are usually needed to elect pope?
Historically, some of the conclaves were really drawn out: in 13th century, they needed three years, over 1,000 days, to choose Gregory X.
There was also one that ended on the first day, when Julius II in 1503 was elected after just 10 hours.
But looking at the last 150 years, these days it is usually a much shorter process: the longest election, of Pius XI in 1922, took 5 days.
Francis was elected on the second day in 2013, after five rounds of voting.
Benedict XVI needed just four rounds to be confirmed as the new pope in 2005, as did John Paul I in 1978.
A bit more time was needed to confirm John Paul II – three days, eight rounds – in 1978, and John XXIII in 1958, with 11 votes over four days. But then his immediate predecessor, Pius XII was elected after just three rounds.
So, the recent history seems to suggest they usually need 2 or 3 days, and we could be close to that moment.
Or not: since the process is so secretive and there are so many moving elements with a record-high number of cardinals involved in the process this year, there’s no way to predict what happens behind the closed doors.
Two more votes today
Jakub Krupa
There will be two further votes this afternoon and into the evening.
But first, it’s time for lunch!
The cardinals are expected to be back in the Sistine Chapel around 4.30pm local time (3.30pm London).
Black smoke again after morning votes – snap analysis
Jakub Krupa
As per earlier briefings, we were meant to see black smoke only if they failed to choose the pope before the lunch break, so at the conclusion of the two morning rounds.
That takes us to three votes so far, with no conclusion.
Interestingly, we got black smoke much earlier than we expected the morning rounds to conclude, which suggests the 133 cardinals have got the hang of it now and vote much more efficiently than last night.
Black smoke from Sistine Chapel chimney
No decision on the pope again.
The chimney cam is back (and so are the seagulls; I will come back to this later).
Our live stream at the top is showing the chimney, too – although, as explained earlier, there is no guarantee we are going to get any smoke after the first round of voting.
Let’s wait and see.
Who are the favourites?
In yesterday’s blog, we covered the profiles of most of the favourites, including the Italians – Vatican’s secretary of state Pietro Parolin and Bologna archbishop Matteo Zuppi – but also Filipino prelate Luis Antonio Tagle, Peter Turkson of Ghana, Péter Erdő of Hungary…
But then remember the old saying: “he who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal,” as few frontrunners at the start of the process make it through the successive rounds of voting.
You can catch up on their profiles here:
But the Italian media are digging ever deeper to get some new anecdotes and stories about the candidates.
Corriere della Sera reported today on rumours about the rising odds of the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem Pierbattista Pizzaballa, adding that “until a month ago, his cousin, a former footballer from the 70s and an unobtainable Panini [collection] sticker, was better known.”
Jakub Krupa
If you want to see the latest scenes from the Vatican, there is now a live stream showing St Peter’s Square and the chimney atop the Sistine Chapel pinned at the top of this page.
What to expect today?
Jakub Krupa
What makes today slightly more tricky to follow is that while we have four rounds of voting, we may not get smoke after every one of them.
As I said earlier, there will be up four rounds of voting today, expected roughly around 9.30am and midday local time, and then after a long lunch break, again at 5.30pm and 7pm local time.
But according to the Italian media, what we see will depend on the results of the votes inside the Sistine Chapel.
If the cardinals do elect a new pope, we should know straight away, with white smoke.
But if they don’t, we will only see black smoke at the end of each voting session – morning or afternoon – and not after every vote.
This means we will have to spend even more time looking closely at the chimney to get an idea of what is happening inside.
Morning opening: Is today the day?
Jakub Krupa
After a good night sleep in the Santa Marta guesthouse in the Vatican and a morning mass, 133 cardinals electors will soon be back in the Sistine Chapel for another rounds of voting on who should be the next pope.
The electors met earlier to celebrate mass and pray in the Pauline Chapel, and are due to move to the Sistine Chapel for prayers and votes.
There will be up four rounds of voting today, expected roughly around 9.30am and midday local time, and then after a long lunch break, again at 5.30pm and 7pm local time.
If you look at recent history, three of the last five popes were elected on the second day, so it’s fair to say we could see white smoke today. The majority required is 89 votes.
But then again this conclave is like no other, with the largest and most diverse electorate of 133 cardinals from 70 countries, many of whom never met before the events of the last few weeks.
We will bring you all the latest.
It’s Thursday, 8 May 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
